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Stop Icing the Kicker !! [Bending the Rules]

Josh Bending the Rules , , , , , ,

Usually in our Bending the Rules column, we take some insignificant ruling and tweak it to make the game more interesting or more competitive. Today, we’re doing the exact opposite. This past year in the NFL a Bending the Rules-esque change was made, and for all that is holy we need to change it back.

This all started last year in Week 2, with Broncos coach Mike Shanahan. In Overtime, no less. The opposing Raiders’ kicker, Sebastian Janikowski lined up for what would have been a game-winning 52-yard field goal, and thanks to his all-mighty boot, he nailed it. Oakland wins! You’d think.

No, it turns out Coach Shanahan called a timeout. How? - You saw the ball was still hiked, the play went off, and the football crossed the uprights, right? No, apparently, you’re wrong. Video evidence to the contrary, that play never happened. The Raiders had to run the play again, for the first time. And as it turns out, Janikowski bonks the next one off the left upright, and one drive later, Denver kicks home the win.

Why did this even start? The premise is that calling a last-second timeout “ices” the kicker - that giving him 30 more seconds to think about his kick will psyche him out, and make him kick the ball wildly astray off towards the sidelines, or something.

It’s a hokey idea to begin with - there’s no conclusive evidence suggesting that this works, at all, aside from maybe buying the corporate bigwigs 30 seconds more of commercial time on TV. There’s one study run by a couple of statisticians in 2003 that everyone on the internet quotes, which you can read about here (But since you probably don’t want to read all of that, here’s the summary: Based on this study, an average kicker in a pressure situation scores 73% of the time, and after icing scores 63% of the time). But they base it on a whopping 38 ice-pressure kicks, which is a fairly small sample size, statistically speaking. Sports Illustrated’s Dr. Z worked with someone from Stats, Inc., and came up with this study:

Pressure kicks (using the same guidelines as described above, except that they’re in the last two minutes, not three) since 1991, regular season — 457 of 637 (71.7 percent) made, without icing on them. After icing, the number is 152 of 211 (72 percent).

So assuming that the “icing the kicker” strategy was useless, they took it a step further - Now, it creates mayhem.

Taking back a win in Overtime can rejuvenate, or completely dismantle, an entire season - if not a franchise. If Oakland wins the game, maybe they don’t end up with Darren McFadden in the draft that off-season. Maybe they even go on a tear and make the playoffs. Well…that one might be more of a stretch. So let’s take a different example - in the Raiders very next game in Week 3, they use the same ridiculous post-attempt time-out tactic against Phil Dawson and the Browns. Dawson, who made the first kick, gets his second attempt blocked, resulting in an Oakland win and Cleveland loss. The Browns would go on to finish the season 10-6, and would miss the playoffs because of losing a tiebreaker to the (also 10-6) Pittsburgh Steelers. Isn’t that a problem?

I’m actually happy about what happened in tonight’s Cardinals - Cowboys game. Well, I should say infuriated by the fact that they used the p-a-t-o, but elated by the overall results. Here, the Cowboys were lined up for a game-tying, last-second field goal, just barely in kicker Nick Folk’s range. The ball was snapped, the kick set, and Arizona blocks it! Time runs out, but did the Cardinals win? Your eyes might suggest so. But the Arizona coaching staff called a timeout, so they’ve got to re-do the kick. And what do you know - Folk, in ultimate F-U mode, drills it home, sending the game into overtime (where the Cowboys eventually lost…but that’s not the point).

Here’s another thing: What happens if a coach does this mid-game? How long before we’re “icing the Quarterback,” too? Imagine Peyton Manning laser-rocketing a bomb down-field to Reggie Wayne on a crucial 3rd and long, and then the Referees saying “well, actually, there was a timeout called, the play needs to be re-done.” Wouldn’t that be stupid? How long would that last?

Even worse - What happens when a player gets injured on one of these fake plays? Then what? How do you explain that to your players? “Thanks for going out there and busting your ass even though we really had no intention of running a play. Sorry about your potentially career-ending torn ACL. But say hi to your wife and kids for me!” I hope that coach gets shot. Call Pac Man Jones.

My ultimate question here is: Who let this happen? Whose idea was this, and who else gave it their seal of approval? This system needs to be reversed, and these cretins need to be booted from their executive chairs, now. It doesn’t make football sense, and more importantly, it doesn’t make football fun.

 

The Market Today: Who to buy, who to sell [List-a-Palooza]

Zach List-a-Palooza , , , , , ,

No, this is not about how the economy is doing so poorly, so keep reading, this is about buying low and selling high. As mentioned in Fantasy 301 and Fantasy 401, in order to make a great trade you need to find the right people to look for.

One huge aspect I want you guys and gals to look for is the players who have had their bye weeks already. One reason for this is because their value looks worse when compared to players who have played in 4 games: 1 extra game has a huge impact this early in the season. Another reason is that later in the season, when you have all those players on bye-weeks, you will not have to worry about this player because his bye-week has passed already, letting him be a fixture in your lineup from here on out.

The teams that already have had their bye weeks are: BAL, HOU, DET, IND, MIA, NE, NYG, SEA.

Here is a sample list of a couple of players to look at:

BUY ME WHILE YOU STILL CAN

Brandon Jacobs NYG RB- Here is a perfect example of buying low. This past week, I got Jacobs for only Fred Taylor and Matt Schaub. Now this is a 2 QB league so Schaub still has a starter’s value, but he is no more than a #2 QB and Fred Taylor is at most a #2 RB. So considering I got a RB that I will start every week and the potential for a top 10 RB for a guy that I picked up in Taylor and a bench warmer, I would say that was a pretty solid steal for me. Now there are many reasons why this went down the way it did. Jacobs has somewhat struggled this year with only 1 TD and about 80 yards a game, but this is not necessarily due to problems in his game. In his one poor game, the Giants blew away the Rams, so Jacobs hit the bench, saving him for future games. Now with his next 3 games of Seattle, Cleveland and San Francisco, your time is running out on grabbing Jacobs while you still can.

Rest of year projection: 13 games: 1000 yards 8TDs

Dallas Clark IND TE-This is a guy that was projected to be a top 5 TE in all of fantasy, if not the number 1 TE, and what has that produced? A stat line of 5 catches 55 yards and 0 TDs… doesn’t really match that projection does it. Well lights should be flashing at you saying “BUY ME” because that owner is not at all pleased with Clark and will be more than willing to deal him for nothing close to his real value. “Why are his stats so low?” I’m glad you asked. First off, he has only played in 2 games, 1 missed due to injury, which he has recovered from, and the other missed due to the Colts’ bye week, so he could not have done THAT much more anyway. Also, Mr. TV commercial, (Peyton Manning for you people with lives) has not gotten off to the start he normally does and that has also hurt Clark’s production. The Colts’ upcoming schedule is not as easy as the aforementioned Jacobs’ but when has that stopped the Colts before? EXACTLY.

Rest of year projection: 50 catches 450 yards 9 TDs

Matt Hasselbeck SEA QB- This is the easiest target of them all. Can you tell me who he has had to throw to the first three weeks of the season?…well I wouldn’t know them either except for the fact that I am supposed to be the “expert” so I kind of have to. In week 1 Nate Burelson, a quality receiver, was in the lineup but he was placed on IR after that game due to an injury which left our boy Matt with a rookie TE…John Carlson…as his most reliable target, and Courtney Taylor, whose hands always happen to get in the way of the ball, as his #2 target. However, Hasselbeck is getting back his favorite target from last year, Bobby Engram, this week, and Deion Branch, a former Superbowl Winning MVP is on the rebound and will be back before the end of the year. Hasselbeck can go nowhere but up, he had a great year last year, and I do not think Julius Jones will keep his production up and I have faith that the horrific defenses that Hasselbeck will play the rest of the way (49ers, Rams, Cardinals, Eagles, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, and Cardinals again) will keep up their poor play. Not to mention that in weeks 15 and 16, the weeks of the playoffs, he faces the Rams and the Jets, which will only help your dreams of a championship.

Rest of year projection: 3500 yards 28 TDs 13INT

TAKE YOUR PROFITS AND GO

Kurt Warner ARI QB- Let me start out by saying Warner still has the talent to produce at this current level, but for what you can get for him now, I would not risk keeping him because of his injury history and the current status of one of his teammates. The Cardinals are giving up sacks like it was their job and that means that Warner is getting hit on more plays than he should, not helping his right arm. Besides the fact that he fumbles way too much, that he is extremely fragile, and that the Cardinals have a former Heisman Trophy winning QB behind him making too much money to sit on the bench, if Warner’s play were to slow down I’d expect to see Leinart getting the snaps for the Cards. The status of Anquan Boldin is another thing worry about. AQ was hit extremely hard this past Sunday and he suffered a fractured sinus along with potential spinal damage and it is not known when he will play again this season. Despite the fact that his replacement Steve Breaston stepped up…he is worth a flier this week…and that Larry Fitzgerald is an incredible specimen playing WR, I still have my doubts with Warner.

Rest of year projection: 8 games 16 Tds 10 INT 1600 Yards

Jason Campbell WAS QB- This guy is playing out of his mind. His career QB Rating is 81.4 and this season thus far he has posted 102.2. He has played some easy defenses thus far in Dallas, New Orleans, and Arizona and has capitalized on those opportunities. His best receiver happens to be an inconsistent, injury prone player in Santana Moss. Don’t get me wrong, when Moss is on his game…on the field…he can take over the game. However, as I mentioned with Warner, I do not feel this will continue and the negatives in Moss’ game will prevail hurting Campbell’s success. Now if you are feeling risky, Campbell continues to play some of the easier defenses up until week 9 when he faces Pitt, meaning if you want to keep him until then, go for it, but after that you are on your own.

Rest of year projection: 12 TDs 8 INT 1600 yards

Matt Forte CHI RB- A rookie that is on pace for 378 carries, on an offense led by Kyle Orton, tells me to sell as fast as I possibly can. He has been very good thus far but his yards per carry has steadily decreased from 5.3 to 2.3 every week, and he has not had a rushing touchdown since week 1. I think Forte will continue this turn for the worse and end up riding the Fantasy bench by the end of the season, or at best become a flex-play, solely because he will be getting the majority of the Bears’ carries.

Rest of year projection: 600 yards 5 Tds

This is just a small list of some guys you can get for cheap or sell for premium price. If you want to learn how to find these guys, check out Fantasy 301 and Fantasy 401 and make your team better!!

 

Bye Week Wonders: Week 4

Sean Bye Week Wonders , , , , , ,

Teams on Bye: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, NY Giants, Seattle

Quarterback: I already warned you twice about J.T. O’Sullivan. If you don’t have him by now, chances are its probably too late to get him. If he’s somehow still on your waiver wire, make sure to grab him as he’s poised to put up some good numbers against Atlanta. If you can’t get O’Sullivan, Trent Edwards is an intriguing option against a weak Rams defense.

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News and Notes from Week 2 [Fantasy Angle Fandangle]

Zach Fantasy Angle Fandangle , , , , , ,

Many interesting things happened in Week 2, including one of the worst football plays I’ve ever seen. Here are the guys that most grabbed my attention.

Darren Sproles, RB, SD: This guy was always “too small” to make it. Well, if you watch his 66 yard TD reception and his moves and flat out speed (he literally ran past the Broncos D on his TD run), he is definitely not too small. The only problem here is some guy named LT - you guys might know him as the #1 fantasy running back going into this year, but I know him as Mr. Consistency. Despite a quiet first two games, I think LT will rebound and perform like that #1 pick, and even still I would grab Sproles and spin him off as if he is the new #1 RB for the Chargers (think you can convince a league mate that LT is hiding an injury?  Give it a shot). If you want to learn how check out Fantasy 301 and Fantasy 401 on this site and learn how to make a trade!

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Ramblings From a DeSean Jackson Victim

Sean Uncategorized , , , , ,

The Cowboys-Eagles tilt on Monday night was an instant classic. It was an offensive shootout that featured numerous long plays and heart pounding excitement. But I will remember it for another reason. DeSean Jackson’s brain fart in the second quarter cost me a win in my fantasy league. My opponent beat me by 3 points, and Jackson would have given me another 6.

As brutal a loss as this was, it does not compare to week 6 in 2006 when Rex Grossman blew my 9 point lead on Monday night with his -10 point meltdown in that infamous Arizona game. But nevertheless, Jackson is an idiot. And what’s worse, he’s done it before.

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The Art of the Trade [Fantasy Classroom 401]

Josh 401, Fantasy Classroom , , , , , , , , , ,

A few days ago, we took a look at The Art of the Trade, and gave a few tips on how to maximize on your trade proposals. Today, I’d like to investigate trade proposal and negotiation a little more closely.

The most important principle I want to discuss is that in proposing trades, you should be looking to fill holes in your opponent’s roster, not your own. It’s scary and it’s backwards, but it’s true.

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